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Local Sea Level Projections

Oceanic processes and local effects as land subsidence lead to substantial regional differences in sea level projections. This website allows you to browse local sea level projections provided by Robert Kopp et al. (2014).

You can also select a tide gauged station on the zoomable map.


At locations where no tide gauged station is available, gridded sea level projections can be selected (yellow squares). Gridded sea level projections come with substantially higher uncertainities. Therefore, we strongly recommend to use projections for tide gauged stations whenever this is possible!


Sea level projections are presented for three emission scenarios:

  • A scenario compatible with the Paris Agreement (RCP26)
  • A scenario reaching +2.5°C at the end of the century (RCP45)
  • A scenario exceeding +4°C at the end of the century (RCP85)
Allthough these emission scenarios are different from 2006 onwards, differences in sea level rise only become apparent in the second half of the 21st century. This is due to the slow and time-lagged response of sea levels to greenhouse gas forcings.

References

Kopp R E, Horton R M, Little C M, Mitrovica J X, Oppenheimer M, Rasmussen D J, Strauss B H and Tebaldi C 2014 Earth’s Future Probabilistic 21st and 22nd century sea-level projections at a global network of tide-gauge sites Earth’s Future

Local sea level projections for Lime Tree Bay for a scenario compatible with the Paris agreement (green), a scenario leading to +2.5°C global mean temperature (orange) and a scenario exceeding +4°C (red). The solid lines represent multi-model medians, the shaded areas include 66% of the models.


Local Sea Level Rise [cm]
decademedianuncertainty ranges
66%90%
2030
14
14
14
11-18
10-18
11-18
8-21
8-21
8-21
2050
25
26
28
19-33
18-34
21-37
15-39
13-41
16-45
2100
51
59
77
32-74
37-85
50-109
21-100
23-111
32-141
2150
74
94
132
40-120
51-146
86-191
22-173
26-202
59-253
2200
99
127
193
39-177
56-214
117-291
10-276
18-313
77-402

Local sea level projections for Lime Tree Bay as in the above figure listed for some selected decades. The first column shows the multi-model median projections (solid line of the figure), columns 2 shows the 66% uncertainty range (shaded area in the figure), column 3 shows the 90% uncertainty range, and column 4 shows the upper limit defined as the 99th percentile of the ensemble projections. As in the figure, the Paris-compatible scenario is shown in green, the +2.5°C scenario in orange and the above +4°C scenario in red.


Contributions to local sea level rise

The contributing components modelled by Robert Kopp et al. (2014) are:
Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets (AIS & GIS) based on IPCC AR5 and expert elicitation, glacier and ice caps (GIC) based on an improvement of the IPCC AR5 method, oceanic processes (ocean) including thermal expansion and dynamic effects taken from CMIP5 simulations, land water storage (LWS) taking into account changes in population, and all non-climatic contributions combined into background effects (Bkgd).

Show source of variance for:


Source of variance in local sea level projections for all contributing components in absolute terms (left) and as fraction of total variance (right).